I've moved to http://www.webflyer.com/blog

---

You'll be transported momentarily

 
Outlining the worst-case scenario for United as it struggles with bankruptcy. That is, other than a war with Iraq...

 
Whoops.

The New York Times runs a correction today that really is a big oops for them.

Because of an editing error, a front-page article yesterday about diplomatic developments in the Iraq crisis misidentified the Bush administration official who said about the weapons inspectors in Iraq, "At some point it will become obvious that it's time for them to go." It was an administration official speaking on condition of anonymity, not Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's national security adviser.

Sorry, but the cat is out of the bag...(Thanks to Slate's Today's Papers for the pointer.)

 
Double or Triple Dip with your Online Shopping. I've written before about how you can and should earn miles for your online shopping. All it takes is logging into your favorite store through a mileage-earning site (such as the Northwest Worldperks Mall, the United Mileage Plus Mall, Goldpoints, AirMilesMart, etc. etc.). You can check whether your store gives points, and with which program, at Rewards Lookup.com.

Here's a tip that's been a bit of the buzz over at Flyertalk -- The Northwest Worldperks Mall gives points for purchasing gift certificates at GiftCertificates.com. You earn 3 Northwest miles per dollar there.

So simply buy a gift certificate for the store you're about to buy from. The gift cert is e-mailed to you instantly. You'll get miles for the gift certificate, and then when you shop at the merchant through the WorldPerks Mall (paying with the gift certificate), you'll earn miles for the purchase too.

Of course, when you pay with your mileage-earning credit card for the gift certificate, you'll get those miles, too.

 
Two for one awards with SAS. SAS Eurobonus members in North America can book special two for one awards from the U.S. to Scandinavia for travel by March 15th. 50,000 points are two coach tickets and 70,000 points are two business class tickets with this promotion. Simply call SAS to book this. (Thanks to MilesLink for the pointer.)

 
You can now earn 50 America West miles for each Super Shuttle trip you make to or from the airport. I don't actually see mention of the offer on the website, but you should be able to give your Flight Fund number when making a reservation. Hey, 50 miles is better than nothin'.

 
The Delta Skymiles American Express is also offering double miles for paying your taxes, and so is the United Visa.

 
Alaska Airlines is making some common sense improvements to its website. Others should follow -- especially in making it easy to view all of the rules associated with a fare before purchasing.

 
Heading to Iraq? At least you can still fly first class when you get back. According to the Detroit News,

Northwest Airlines said Tuesday that if WorldPerk Elite members are called to active military duty, the airline will extend their 2003 Elite status through the 2004 year. The extension also will apply to current active duty military members who receive deployment orders. To qualify for the extension, qualifying WorldPerk Elite members should fax their activation or deployment orders along with their WorldPerk number to 218-254-7566.

 
Pay your taxes with the Starwood American Express and earn double miles. The following language is apparently included in this month's statement (Mine won't come for a couple of days, so I haven't seen it myself yet):

You can earn double Starpoints on your first $4,000 in taxes when you use your card to pay your 2002 individual federal income taxes from 3/15/2003 - 4/15/2003. File your 1040 on time, via paper or electronically, then use your Starwood Amex card to charge your taxes onlione or over the phone by calling Offical Payments Corporation at 1-800-2PAY-TAX or visiting www.officialpayments.com.

 
Southwest Airlines has a campy feel to it. It's part of how they make their low-end product more enjoyable. On a flight two years ago, a flight attendant tried to get passengers to sit down in order to expedite departure with the following announcement:

"Eenie, meenie, minie, moe; pick a seat, we gotta go."

A judge has now set a trial date in the discrimination lawsuit that followed where two passengers claimed emotional injuries because the rhyme has a racist history.

 
Follow the leader... off the cliff? American Airlines acknowledges that noone has figured out how to make a low cost carrier within a carrier work, but they're considering it anyway because Delta and United are talking about it.

 
Joe Brancatelli has some basic lessons for business travelers traveling for leisure. Hint: approach leisure travel differently.

 
The Chicago Sun-Times has a piece today on the new low-cost "airlines-within-airlines" being started at United and Delta including a summary of failed past attempts by the major airlines to create low cost subsidiaries as a way of competing with Southwest and others.

It's never worked before (e.g. Continental Lite, United Shuttle). The majors simply retain too high a cost structure and dilute their premium brands by trying to mimic Southwest or JetBlue. Smaller airlines pick and choose niche markets and clean the majors' clocks.

United's early concept was simply to re-introduce a low cost carrier with their older planes like they had with the United Shuttle on the West Coast (which they set up to compete with Southwest, but they shut down because it lost money). However, low cost carrier JetBlue offers leather seats and satellite television, and the new Delta carrier looks to offer a similar product. Unless United re-tools its plan, it will have higher costs and a poorer product than its competitors. And that's not a recipe for success.

 
USA Today reports on the trend towards airlines rewarding high revenue flyers instead of high mileage flyers. For instance:

• Delta has moved towards a revenue model for elite qualification.
  
• United has formalized its VIP program.
  
• American and Northwest offer revenue tracks (parallel to mileage tracks) towards elite status.

The article doesn't point out that in most cases the perks for high revenue flyers aren't new perks. In several cases they are even less generous than the old perks for high revenue flyers. The airlines are simultaneously cutting back and transitioning perks to a revenue-based approach.

I think this is ill-advised. They run the risk of losing the loyalty of the high volume flyer who while not necessarily as lucrative are certainly built into their current businesss model.

If the planes were completely packed solid, there might be a reason to ration out scarce perks (or to expand operations). In the current climate, it makes no sense to alienate existing customers. Instead, the American and Northwest approaches of augmenting benefits for high revenue flyers rather than cutting benefits for high mileage flyers seems to make more sense.

The question, though, and this remains to be seen -- are the days of perks for all but the highest yield travelers coming to an end? That seems to be the current mindset of the industry, and there will be plenty of moves in that direction, but I don't expect it to entirely succeed.

But we might all have to start flying Northwest and America West.

 
Homeland security takes a bite out of economic productivity. The two biggest issues on the domestic agenda right now are terrorism (and all that goes along with it, including Iraq) and the sagging economy. Either one has the potential to undo this administration. But the silliest of policies aimed at the former have the potential to do real damage to the latter.

Real productivity growth was the engine of expansion in the 90s, through the widespread adoption of such inovations as electronic communications and just-in-time delivery. But new U.S. Customs rules may require giving the government as much as 3 days notice before shipping anything into the country.

That means making decisions about what materials are needed in production earlier (possibly with less information, leading to bad decisions and waste). That means stockpiling inventories to hedge against need, meaning inefficiently allocated resources.

Perhaps supply chains need greater security. I'm willing to bet, though, that overloading the Customs service with information on all shipments into the country won't do much good. They'll have to process and analyze all of that information, and there's no reason to suspect they'll be adept at that.

 
Clothing for dignity? The Tri-Cities Regional Airport in Blountville, Tennessee, is giving away free socks to passengers whose shoes are inspected by airport security.

 
The Transportation Security Administration's Inspector General criticizes the agency's wasteful and profligate spending, for instance

[T]he TSA estimated that it would cost $107 million to hire tens of thousands of federal airport screeners. The contract ended up costing more than $700 million.

 
Politics and affinity programs. The Republic Party now has GOPoints which lets members earn rewards for political activism. The rewards are unimpressive, but the idea is a good one.

 
Novel concept. Air Canada boosts service to earn more revenue. Funny thing is that this is a novel concept in the airline industry. With so many airlines cutting back on their amenities, customers might just choose to fly one that isn't.

In contrast, United in recent years has eroded its premium cabins by:
ending hot towel service domestically
ending champagne service domestically
cutting Godiva chocolates and hot chocolate chip cookies
cutting the personal video library in 3-class First

There are fewer passengers paying premium fares in the current environment. But those that are have no reason to choose United over a competitor flying a similar route. As other airlines introduce flat beds in business class, even United's advantage of the best seat in the sky is gone.

Delta and United are both following a low-cost model in its return to profitability. I wish them the best of luck. I'm just not interested in flying that airline, and I suspect others (who value premium service) agree with me.

 
Punditwatch is up.

 
The offer for 5% off at USAirways.com has been moved to a different link. Betcha they thought we couldn't find it, huh?

 
New Lufthansa Visa offers 6000 signup points, no annual fee, and one mile per dollar spent. Pretty good for a no annual fee card! Lufthansa's award chart isn't the best for North American residents, though.

 
Test drive a new 2003 Jaguar X-TYPE through February 25, 2003 for 10,000 British Airways miles. Buy the car by March 12, 2003, and you'll get an additional 80,000 British Airways miles.

 
Up to 10,000 bonus Alaska miles for travel on Northwest to Europe or Asia.

 
Speak Swedish? There's a survey good for 500 SAS miles.

 
Fly Alaska and Northwest for up to 20,000 bonus miles.

 
Holy Smokes. USAirways goes berserk with double miles promos and fast tracks to elite status. These all appear like they were probably intended for specific targeted Dividend Miles members, but it looks like anyone can sign up. And while they may say "Cannot be combined with other bonus mile offers," that often proves false.

• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between February 4 and April 30, 2003
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between March 1 and May 31, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between March 1 and May 31, 2003.
  
• Fast Track to Silver and Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between February 4 and April 30, 2003. (Excludes US Airways Shuttle.)
  
• Fast Track to Silver and Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between March 1 and May 31, 2003. (Excludes US Airways Shuttle.)
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between February 4 and April 30, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between March 1 and May 31, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between March 1 and May 31, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between February 4 and April 30, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between March 1 and May 31, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between February 4 and April 30, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between March 1 and May 31, 2003.
  
• Earn Double Miles when flying US Airways and US Airways Express between February 4 and March 31, 2003.
  
• A Faster Way to Silver Preferred
  
• A Faster Way to Silver Preferred-2
  
• A Faster Way to Silver Preferred-3
  
• A Faster Way to Silver Preferred-4
  
• Announcing a Direct Route to Gold Preferred
  
• Announcing a Direct Route to Gold Preferred-2
  
• Chairman's Preferred Fast Track
  
• Chairman's Preferred Fast Track-2

(Thanks, Beckles.)

 
Fly full fare (Y, B, M) coach from Europe, Latin America, India, Japan, Turkey, or Russia to the US and back and earn up to 25,000 bonus Delta miles.

 
Gregg Easterbrook, who predicted the Challenger disaster in a 1980 article, has a new piece on the Space Shuttle and NASA's problems. Well worth a read.

 
AT&T Wireless customers, pay your monthly bill by automatic electronic funds transfer and earn 1500 American Airlines miles.

 
All of United's workers may soon be out of a job unless the business turns around. But Joanne Plurad is suing United because it paid her for not working, instead of giving her work to do.

When she could no longer perform her job due to M.S., she was given other work. After five years, she was told the airline didn't have any more work for her -- but kept paying her. She's suing because she said United should have found her a job.

 
Guess the Dictator or Sit-Com Character.

 
Thou artless clay-brained codpiece! The Shakespeare Insult Kit.

 
The Economist profiles Hernando de Soto -- a conservative economist who talks with Bono and who was touted by Bill Clinton at Davos.

 
The biggest case of financial mismanagement in American history. And it isn't what you think. A 100 year-long accounting scandal involving possibly $100 billion dollars. And a cabinet secretary held in contempt of court. I usually write mostly about travel, but this story was just interesting and I had heard only a scant little about it before.

 
Just another reason why Alaska Air has an outstanding frequent flyer program. When you redeem a free ticket to Australia, they'll given you another free ticket good anywhere in the U.S. (including Alaska).

So what are the other reasons that I like Alaska?

First of all, their elite-level is pretty outstanding. Free upgrades from any fare -- 2 days out for MVPs and at the time of booking (subject to availability) for MVP Golds. Note also that they have the lowest threshold of any US airline for qualifying as an elite -- only 15,000 miles. They even give MVP Golds upgrade coupons to pass out to their friends.

Second of all, their partnerships are excellent -- American and Northwest, to name a few.

Third, they are a good airline, even in coach.

They have one of the best mile earning credit cards -- it even throws in a free pass to the airline's club and gives you bonus miles each year just for keeping the card.

Sign up for their program, and they'll give you 500 bonus miles. Then you can earn another 1500 miles free for signing up for their e-mails

 
America West has a website (intended for internal use) which will show you exactly how many passengers are booked on any of its flights.

 
The Vatican is looking to name a patron saint for the Internet by Easter. Goodness knows the pathetic websites of United, Continental, and USAirways could use one.

 
Hooters Air really will be staffed by Hooters waitresses -- two per plane to serve beverages, etc.

 
The most important thing I read today -- Jude Wanniski's hawk/dove quiz which offers a debunking of common myths about Iraq. (Thanks to Mark Brady for the link.)

 
I haven't been able to travel -- or post -- much recently. Because I've been on the phone. With the IRS.

Well, I've been busy at work dealing with some crises (like a flood). So it's not entirely because of the IRS. But I've spent way too much of the past few days jousting at bureaucratic windmills. Yesterday I spent nearly three hours on the telephone trying to find out where to get a simple IRS form. Three hours of my life that I'll never get back.

After calling the main help line, the phone number for my local IRS office, several other offices, and the taxpayer advocate, I still had no answer.

Here are the highlights:

• The form I needed cannot be printed from the website. Oh, it's there, mind you. With a notice on it that says it can't be used.
  
  
• I ordered a form from the IRS over a month ago. Despite their 2 week time estimate, it never arrived.
  
  
• I needed to file the form, and I was running up against a calendar deadline. So I called to find out where I could physically pick it up.
  
  
• The IRS only has one answer -- call your local branch office. Or print it off the website.
  
  
• My local branch office has a voice tree that doesn't give an option to speak to a person. The only opportunity for interaction is a voice mail box which promises that in the most pressing of cases, calls will be returned in 2 business days.
  
  
• I called the forms distribution center. "We don't know where the forms are. We only ship them to our customers." Then where are the ones I ordered?
  
  
• I remembered that there was a Treasury Department building with a "forms lobby." Noone at the IRS could tell me whether it still existed. They suggested I call that Treasury office. I was bounced to an operator elsewhere, who offered me a direct number. "Oops. That's the number you called. That's my number. Have you tried the website?"
  
  
• I finally tracked down a number for that office. The conversation that I had was truly priceless:
  
  Me: "Could you tell me whether your forms lobby is still open?"
  IRS Woman: "It's not my job to answer that."
  Me: "Well, it's just in the lobby. I'm wondering whether you see a bunch of forms when you pass by there?"
  IRS Woman: "You've called the wrong number."
  Me: "Do you ever walk through the lobby?"
  IRS Woman: "Yes."
  Me: "Do you see any forms when you do?"
  IRS Woman: "I don't look."
  Me: "I'm not looking for an official statement from the IRS here. I'm just asking, as one very frustrated human being, for some compassion. Could you help me? Could you just tell me whether there are rows and aisles full of forms in the lobby of your building?"
  IRS Woman: "It's not my job." [Click]
  
  
• I called the "Taxpayer Advocate" looking for help. They told me I called called the wrong number and would transfer me. Where, I asked? "I don't know."
  
  
• My wonderful and able assistant finally took a list of all possible locations that could house the forms we needed. And got them.

Apparently, the IRS in Washington DC only had carbon copy forms that must be filled out on a typewriter! My office does not HAVE a typewriter.

However, an obscure rule does permit this form to be filled out by hand. Which I spent my morning today doing. And now, dear readers, you know why I'm stuck here -- and not on an airplane, or writing to you.

 
USAirways is offering systemwide double miles. Remember that these are on top of all the other USAIrways bonuses.

 
Lots of folks are angry at the changes to Delta's Frequent Flyer elite-level benefits, but the Delta American Express still have one of the better bonuses going -- up to 25,000 miles.

 
More USAirways Bonus Miles

• Earn 2,500 to 10,000 bonus miles for flying 4-12 segments
  
• Double or triple miles to and from Denver
  
• 25,000 bonus miles for traveling to Europe in paid business class
  
• 10,000 bonus miles for traveling to Europe in coach
  
• Double miles to Ireland

 
In fairness to United... Many of United's 747s have been going away, being replaced by 777s. That means the business class capacity drops tremendously (almost in half!) across much of the international route network. That means available upgrade inventory likely drops dramatically as well. So the upgrade inventory needs to be rationed somehow. Otherwise United would have had a whole bunch of flyers with upgrade certificates that could never be used, because there simply were too many coupons out there for the number of available seats. Making Systemwide Upgrades good only on pricier fares means rationing based on price.

Of course, if a competitor doesn't restrictions use of similar certificates or reduce available business upgrade inventory, United will lose A will lose... I still think they would have been better off solving the problem in a way that didn't seem like as drastic a cut -- something like "H+ fare confirmable at booking" just as before but "lower fares confirmable within 30 days" or even "lower fares confirmable at the elite upgrade window"...

 
Dilution at the top for United? I sent this email last night to a friend that's a top-level elite ("1K") with United:

Looks like I was right about Systemwide Upgrades being useable on Lufthansa (though on a standby/day of departure basis only). Of course, you can still use miles to upgrade LH flights on the higher fares (as long as it's on a LH flight number, not a UA codeshare).

In other news/rumors, it looks like the promised extra goody for elites who requalified "the real way" (rather than through the extended qualification period) is only going to be a free companion ticket (not upgradeable). Also, it looks like the new Systemwides are only going to be valid on "H" fares and above. :(

That means no more upgrading the lowest fares internationally, folks.

United figures that it can increase revenue by either selling the seats that currently go to cheap upgraders or convince passengers flying discounted fares to pay more for the ability to upgrade.

The problem is that many 1Ks use their Systemwide Upgrades on inexpensive fares for personal travel, and give United much pricier and more lucrative business travel as well. Without the ability to do this, there's little reason to give United that lucrative business instead of, say, American -- which still allows its top level elites to upgrade from any fare.

There is a rumor that American could be headed in the same direction as United -- but if they stay put they'll offer a real competitive advantage and will likely pick up the business of many of United's top flyers.

If you're a United 1K, drop a note to the 1K email address and let them know if you're unhappy. Also, check out 1K Flyers.com -- where United's top flyers gather and can speak with a single loud voice to let their preferred airline know how they feel.

 
And speaking of iDine, United has an iDine bonus offering that you can register for.

 
Forbes has a piece on iDine, one of the mileage junkies best friends (because it's free and gives you miles for something you're doing anyway).

 
Amtrak is offering Buy One, Get One Free with promo code H259.

 
The 2003 Adult Video News Awards were given out last night in Las Vegas. Apparently, it was a big night for Evil Angel productions, which took home 19 honors.

I wonder, though, if it's a sign of category-inflation when they give out "Best Gonzo Tape," "Best Vignette Tape" (as distinguished from "Best Vignette Series" and "Best Foreign Vignette Series"), and "Best Sex Scene in a Foreign-Shot Production." Not to mention "Best Ethnic-Themed Video."

I guess that's just self-esteem meets porn.

 
Update your Asiana profile for 1000 bonus miles.

 
USAirways is offering 5% off for booking via their website.

 
The Delta-Continental-Northwest marketing alliance will be approved -- but with yet undisclosed conditions. No idea what this will all look like yet, as the devil is in the details. Government approval aside, I don't expect too much aligning of the respective frequent flyer programs because the Continental-Northwest programs (which are nearly identical) are far different from the Delta program (which has just been massively revamped).

 
Northwest Airlines has a new bonus miles promotion called Mile-a-Palooza. Various Northwest activities earn points which will be converted to miles (up to 200,000). You must register to participate.

Unlike the last Mileage Mania promotion, this one will allow you to track your points online -- a big improvement!

It isn't as generous/easy as the Fly Free Faster and Fly Free Faster 2 promotions last year, but then those only netted 10,000 miles each. And it seems a bit more lucrative than MIleage Mania. So if there's any chance you'll be having anything to do with Northwest in the coming months, it's definitely worth registering.

 
250 free Priority Club points (Holiday Inn, etc.) for completing a survey.

 
Starwood refuses to honor its $85 Bora Bora rate, and the issue makes it into USA Today.

 
Delta has several signup bonuses for electronic statements, and they all expire tomorrow. Get bonus miles for choosing email statements rather than paper/mail. You are likely only to be eligible for one, and no telling which one it is until you try 'em..:

• 5,000 bonus miles.
  
• 2,500 bonus miles.
  
• 1,500 bonus miles.
  
• 500 bonus miles.

 
2,500 bonus miles for flying new Delta Connection routes roundtrip through March 15.

 
More Amtrak discounts.

Discount code H259 is good for a 25% discount for travel booked between January 7-February 15, for travel between January 10-August 28 (except February 14-17 blackout). Three day advance booking required. Non-refundable, and not good on certain services (such as Acela Express, Metroliner, Downeaster).

Discount code H255 gets you a two-for-one discount.

Discount code V529 still works. Save 20% on Amtrak travel to New York or Boston from stations in the Northeast (including all intermediate stations).

 
Free golf balls from Nike.

 
UPI headline: "Vampire saliva could help treat stroke"

 
Nine people in Reston and Herndon Virginia were arrested for being drunk in a bar (not for causing a disturbance or driving).

"If the law says that if you are in a public location and intoxicated, you are subject to arrest," said Lt. Tor Bennett of the Reston District of the Fairfax County Police Department.

 
Saw this the other day but haven't been posting as much as I should... Northwest Airlines is joining America West in testing selling food on board.

 
Man removed from plane for making sexual comments to an airport security worker. After being detained, Sheriff's deputies determined he hadn't broken any laws. He was released and placed on a later flight. She says:

Kelly Nobles, Transportation Security Administration screener at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, told police that Goldstein looked at her Wednesday and asked, ``Are you a real blonde?''

Goldstein also said, ``If you and me were to have sex, I would want you to keep your uniform on,'' according to a police report. Other screeners also heard the remarks.

Nobles told police she felt ``really uncomfortable and began to cry.''

He says:

He said he simply asked the woman how often she is propositioned on the job, then continued talking to a group of men about porn star Ron Jeremy.

 
Register for 500 Bonus Miles on Your Next Delta Flight. (Register by 2/28 and fly by 4/15.)

 
The TSA has blocked screeners from unionizing, citing security as a reason to forego the kinds of red tape that come along with a unionized work force. The American Federation of Government Employees AFL-CIO is challenging the decision. (Links via TAPPED.)

 
Win 250,000 American Airlines miles.

 
Chicago and Northwest Indiana residents earn 1500 United miles for using Mobil Speedpass

 
Six times the miles on USAirways shuttle (DC/NY/Boston) flights through March 31. Register and then provide both your USAirways number and your United number with your reservation. You'll earn triple USAirways miles and triple United miles for your trip.

 
Lufthansa is offering 500 miles for registering your email address with them (under "your profile" in the Miles & More section of their website). Delta is also offering miles for switching to online statements.

 
All DC-area residents should read Tony Woodlief's important instructions for riding Metro or risk having "your next-of-kin...retrieve a battered, heel-marked corpse from Metro Security."

 
Register by January 24th for double miles on United through April 4th. Here's the fine print:

Purchase and fly segments with an e-ticket on any United or United Express route worldwide. Book your trip between January 4th and January 24th and complete your travel by April 4th. You'll receive double flight miles with any published fare in any class of service. Miles will be posted to your account upon completion of travel. This offer is valid for up to 10 segments.

 
Naked-air ready for takeoff. The very first nudist flight is scheduled for May, flying Miami to Cancun.

 
Signup for 25% bonus miles when transferring American Express Membership Rewards points into Continental Airlines miles.

 
5,000 elite qualifying miles from America West for flying and taking advantage of offers from their partners.

 
United is cutting meals from shorter first and business class flights while at the same time cutting fares for walkup travel.

 
Michael Ignatieff's Sunday New York Times Magazine piece has some important insights into the coming war with Iraq.

- It requires a political committment lasting several administrations.

- To succeed, the U.S. will have to engage the entire Middle East:
a) Convince Iran no to feel threatened by a United States-led democracy on their border.
b) Reassure Turkey that we won't create a Kurdish state which would be a threat
c) Encourage Syrian-Israeli peace
d) Coax Saudi Arabia into democracy

And even if we do all of that, unseating an Arab government while the ignoring Israel-Palestinian conflict will still lead to tremendous anti-U.S. backlash.

To achieve our security aims in Iraq really means to act as a hegemon over the entire Middle East -- and a successful hegemon which is viewed benevolently.

My own view is that this is impossible, but that's a tentative conclusion open to debate. The important point of the article is the need to broaden the discussion to the aftermath of an invasion of Iraq. Understanding the long-term scenarios and consequences is the only way to evaluate whether the campaign is advisable.

The current administration plan, outlined in today's Times, is to occupy Iraq (possibly with U.N. administrators) for a year and to keep the current state and most of the current government in tact. It seems that a unitary state might be less of a threat, and certainly less aggressive towards neighbors than breaking it up. However, it's a short-sighted committment which will either grow beyond the administration's statements or fail, and it's unclear how democracy (and thus an end to threats) can be achieved in a year with the current bureaucratic infrastructure remaining in tact.

(Thanks to Jon Utley for pointing out the article, since I didn't get around to yesterday's Times.)

 
United to follow Continental and USAirways lead? It appears that mainline United may be turning over a whole lot more flying to its United Express partners, and has lined up the purchase of hundreds of 50 seat regional jets. Continental has turned its Cleveland hub into an RJ park -- 737s look like jumbo jets there. It's even possible to fly a one-stop transcon flight on RJs with Continental (Richmond-Houston-Palm Springs). Is this the future for United?